Ballooning Medicaid costs, TABOR limits expose flaws in Colorado’s big government spending spree

By Rocky Mountain Voice Editorial Board

After years of overreach and unchecked government growth, Colorado lawmakers are now scrambling to plug a $1.2 billion hole in the state budget — a crisis largely of their own making. 

Colorado budget writers voted Wednesday night to finalize a 2025–26 budget plan that slashes transportation funding, eliminates programs, and kicks key decisions down the road — all while Medicaid spending surges out of control.

Despite the so-called “cuts,” the budget still grows to over $16 billion. But massive increases in Medicaid — particularly long-term care for seniors and the disabled — are eating up the budget at an unsustainable pace. Democrat lawmakers admit the problem is only getting worse. “Next year, I see our fiscal challenges compounding,” said Rep. Shannon Bird, vice chair of the Joint Budget Committee (JBC), during a hearing.

Conservatives argue this crisis is a direct result of failed progressive governance: endless new programs, expensive mandates, and refusal to address structural overspending.

TABOR Targeted Again

Once again, the state’s taxpayer protections — the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) — are being blamed by Democrats for the budget woes. TABOR limits government growth to population plus inflation, requiring refunds to citizens when revenue exceeds the cap.

Instead of thanking taxpayers for Colorado’s booming economy, JBC Chair Sen. Jeff Bridges (D-Greenwood Village) criticized TABOR: “When the economy is booming and the state is tightening its belt, that just doesn’t make sense,” he told The Colorado Sun. “It’s like, ‘why are you making these cuts?’ And the answer is TABOR.”

But to fiscal conservatives, it makes perfect sense. TABOR keeps the government from ballooning during economic highs and forces legislators to prioritize. That’s not dysfunction — it’s accountability.

Medicaid Explosion: A Budget Black Hole

Medicaid spending, up another $208 million this year, has now surpassed education as the largest line item in the state budget. Child Health Plan Plus (CHP+) will increase by 20%. Hospitals treating Medicaid patients are getting a modest 1.6% bump, despite inflation and staff shortages.

The JBC ultimately rejected cuts to Medicaid eligibility — for now — but Sen. Bridges warned major changes are coming: “The fastest growing part of our state budget is Medicaid… it’s just going to get worse.”

Meanwhile, Democrats continue to expand social programs with no serious plan for sustainability. They even refused to eliminate Cover All Coloradans, a program that provides taxpayer-funded health care to illegal immigrants — costing $19.2 million next year.

Education and Entitlements: Big Promises, Bigger Price Tags

Lawmakers also kicked the can on the state’s new K–12 school funding formula. They approved $150 million in new education spending — still short of what’s needed to fully fund even the existing formula, let alone the new one.

Lawmakers have yet to determine exactly how much schools will receive this year, as funding details are still tied to the upcoming School Finance Act — a sign that the numbers don’t add up yet.

The state’s universal free school lunch program — launched in 2022 and already over budget — was given a temporary extension through December, pending voter approval of tax hikes to fund it permanently. The $34 million shortfall wasn’t a surprise, but lawmakers still forged ahead when it was politically convenient.

Transportation Takes the Hit

In what might be the most telling cut of all, transportation funding was gutted — down $64 million this year and another $50 million next. Grant programs to help cities redevelop their downtowns, fund bike lanes, and buy electric school buses were slashed or eliminated entirely.

Democrats claim they support infrastructure, but when the budget got tight, roads and transportation were among the first things to go. Meanwhile, unionized state employees will still receive a 2.5% raise, even though the workforce will shrink slightly through unfilled vacancies.

The Bigger Picture: Spending vs. Reality

The truth is, Colorado’s budget crisis isn’t about unexpected costs — it’s about unsustainable promises. Lawmakers boosted spending during COVID using federal aid and higher property taxes. They expanded preschool, raised pay for government workers, and launched new programs like universal school meals — without permanent funding plans.

Now the bill is due.

Conservatives warned this moment was coming. The refusal to rein in Medicaid, the obsession with growing government, and the hostility toward TABOR have put Colorado on a path toward financial instability.

Even as federal cuts loom under the Trump administration’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), Democrats continue to punt tough decisions. If a recession hits or federal funds dry up further, lawmakers may be forced into a special session — for which they’ve already cut the funding.

Colorado doesn’t have a revenue problem — it has a spending problem. Until lawmakers prioritize core services over progressive pet projects, this cycle of crisis and cuts will continue.

As Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Brighton) put it, “Maybe we should take a pause and figure it out.”