Gaines: Net migration math doesn’t lie—Denver’s policies aren’t working

By Cory Gaines | Commentary, Colorado Accountability Project

Small wonder on Denver’s Net Migration

A recent report by the conservative-leaning Common Sense Institute (see the CPR article linked first below), has it that Denver’s net migration — inflow take away outflow — has fallen over 50% in the last decade.

Keep in mind that the net migration is still positive, more people are coming than leaving, but we have a decrease in the increase. Quoting the article (with link left intact):

“The state’s population growth has declined by nearly 53% in the past 10 years, according to a new report released by the Common Sense Institute, a non-partisan research organization. The study measured net migration, which is the difference between people moving into the state and people leaving.”

Screenshot 1 attached is the time series graph from the article for those that prefer pictures. Note a climb since 2021 (the dip in that year presumably due to COVID), but still nowhere near the high in 2015.

The numbers are especially stark if you look at what the census and demographers call the Denver Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area.** A couple non-contiguous quotes flesh this out:

“Denver is ‘stuck in the slow lane,’ according to the [CSI] report. According to the Denver Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA), 66% fewer people moved to the area over the last decade. Colorado Springs also saw a dramatic decrease, at nearly 29%.”

and

“The report found that the decrease in Colorado, in comparison to commercially and culturally similar cities, is startling. The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood area is the only such area in the nation reported to have a negative percentage change from a 70% increase in inward migration to a major decrease over roughly the past decade.

It’s reasonable to figure that there are many reasons for the lower inflow and/or greater outflows. As you might imagine, the conservative-leaning group CSI has their views. Quoting their report (found through the link in the quote above):

“These results likely reflect a combination of economic, housing, demographic, and quality-of-life factors specific to the urban core. Contributing factors may include persistent challenges with housing affordability, concerns about urban livability, and evolving residential preferences that are prompting residents to relocate to the surrounding suburbs outside of the Denver PMSA or leave the region altogether. For example, a study published in ScienceDirect in 2021 found that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant shift in national housing demand away from neighborhoods with high population density. This change was driven, in part, by the increased prevalence of telework, reducing the necessity of living close to job centers, and a decreased value placed on proximity to consumption amenities. Additionally, neighborhoods with high pre-pandemic home values experienced a greater drop in housing demand.”

Undoubtedly things like this are a part. But I want to point you to a couple Denverite articles I link to below. The first is an update to a Denver law to block the construction of most types of gas station, the second is an update on the Denver Sidewalk Enterprise program.

I’ll leave it to you to read both, a quick summary will be enough for our purposes here. What you see in both is a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of government. You see a shift in Denver’s politics away from good governance and toward poor management of the basics.

A government that takes it upon itself to manage the economy (as typified by regulating one particular type of business out of the city) is the kind of government that leads to market inefficiencies and economic problems.

A government that has for years ignored infrastructure, but seemingly has no trouble digging deep to fund a homeless-NGO complex is the kind of government that leads to everyone in the city having to pay an additional $150 yearly (minimum) on top of what they already pay for city services to do something simple like fixing sidewalks.

I suppose you could argue that the above fall under the rubric of “affordability” as per CSI’s report, but I think that the role Denver’s government has played (as it has shifted ever-leftward) merits special mention.

READ THE FULL COMMENTARY AT THE COLORADO ACCOUNTABILITY PROJECT

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