Donald Trump could pass the 100 delegate threshold later this month, signaling the foregone conclusion he is on the way to his third straight nomination as the Republican Party’s choice for President.
He has thus far gathered 33 delegates in Iowa and New Hampshire to the 17 collected by Nikki Haley, Trump’s lone remaining challenger. But, the outcome in Nevada was especially harmful to Haley. She lost the primary to “none of these candidates” without Trump on the ballot and then failed to register for Thursday’s caucus, where Trump stands to be awarded all 26 delegates.
“A bad night for Nikki Haley,” Trump wrote on social media.
That would leave four delegates at stake Thursday in the Virgin Islands caucus, with the South Carolina primary looming on Feb. 24 in Haley’s home state, where she once served as governor. South Carolina is a winner-take-all primary with 50 delegates at stake.
In the most recent Monmouth University/Washington Post poll released Feb. 1, Trump had mostly maintained a comfortable 28% lead over Haley in September with a 26% margin projected in January.
“Trump’s electability is a concern for some primary voters,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It’s just that this group is nowhere near large enough to put Haley in striking distance of the front-runner.”
That poll of 815 likely voters with a 3.9% margin of error found voters overwhelmingly favoring Trump on the key issues. The data finds South Carolina trusts Trump with 62% support on immigration, 60% on economic policy, 54% on foreign policy and 35% on abortion policy. Haley was trusted by 22% on immigration, 21% on economic policy, 29% on foreign policy and 26% on abortion policy.
In her home state, the Monmouth University/Washington Post poll found 45% had a favorable impression of Haley, while 66% had a favorable impression of Trump and 58% had a favorable impression of Sen. Tim Scott, who withdrew from the race and has been campaigning for Trump.
Among the other poll questions, 71% of respondents indicated Trump would either definitely beat or probably beat President Joe Biden in November, while 63% felt the same of Haley. Seven percent more respondents said Haley would lose to Biden, compared to Trump.
The Monmouth University/Washington Post poll also measured strong South Carolina support for Trump, finding 60% would support Trump remaining the Republican nominee for President if convicted of a crime related to Jan. 6 and 62% pledged to vote for him in the general election if there was a conviction.
The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump taking 60% of the vote in South Carolina and defeating Haley by 30.7%. The Morning Consult poll, conducted between Jan. 23 to Feb. 4 among 414 registered voters, has Trump taking 68% of the vote and defeating Haley by a 37% margin.
Following South Carolina, there are contests in five states before Super Tuesday on March 5.