By Rocky Mountain Voice Staff
With Colorado’s 2026 elections on the horizon, Republicans are once again asking the question: What kind of candidate can actually win statewide?
On the latest episode of Unleashed, Rocky Mountain Voice founder Heidi Ganahl sat down with Mark Mitchell, head pollster for Rasmussen Reports, to dig into exclusive polling data—and the identity crisis facing Colorado’s GOP. [Click here to listen or watch the full episode on YouTube or Rumble.]
“This is one of the biggest quandaries,” Mitchell said. “How do you unpack this very particular issue in Colorado?”
A Party Divided
The polling, commissioned by Ganahl’s Road to Red project, looked at likely Republican primary voters in Colorado. But in a state where unaffiliated voters outnumber both parties, the Republican primary is anything but straightforward.
Under Colorado’s open primary system—approved by voters in 2016—unaffiliated voters receive both a Democrat and Republican ballot, and can choose to vote in either party’s primary.
The result? A GOP primary that’s increasingly influenced by non-Republicans.
Mitchell’s data revealed that in the Republican primary sample, only 55% identified as Republicans, with the rest split between 35% independents and 10% Democrats. That mix has major implications.
“You’ve got Democrat voters—some of them likely voting strategically—choosing Nikki Haley over Trump,” Mitchell said. “Haley took over 30% of the vote here, far more than her national average. That doesn’t happen without crossover voters.”
Ganahl acknowledged she had once doubted the idea of Democrats meddling in the GOP primary—until now.
“There’s lots of theories about Democrats registering as unaffiliated to mess with things. I didn’t really think that happened a lot, but based on this polling… maybe it does.”
Trump’s Popularity—and the Path to Victory
Despite the crossover dynamic, the poll found that Trump remains very popular among Republican-leaning voters in Colorado. Sixty-nine percent rated him favorably, and when asked whether they preferred a candidate more like Trump or a traditional Republican, Trump-style candidates won 54% to 40%.
Mitchell’s takeaway? “A MAGA candidate wins the primary. You throw a Trump endorsement on top of that—it’s a slam dunk.”
But that’s where the trouble starts.
“The problem is the general election,” Ganahl said. “I won my primary in 2022, but the Democrats painted me as extreme, dumped millions into the race, and used anti-MAGA attacks against me.”
Mitchell agreed: “Colorado went from a single-digit GOP loss in 2016 to a double-digit loss in 2020. In 2024, it only swung back two points to the right. It’s still a D+11 general election environment. That’s a major headwind.”
Media Power and Messaging Gaps
Both Ganahl and Mitchell pointed to the Colorado media landscape as a major barrier.
“There’s a fog that lays over Colorado,” Ganahl said. “The Democrats own the media and the money machine here. They outspent us 10 to 1, just in the governor’s race.”
Mitchell emphasized that messaging—and who controls it—still drives perception.
“They’ve had a pretty ubiquitous ability to define what the right is. And they have complete control over the mainstream mouthpieces.”
But he also sees signs of change.
“The mainstream media’s influence is cracking,” he said. “Since 2024, there’s been a noticeable shift. People don’t respond to their Sunday news cycles like they used to. It’s not breaking through the same way.”
The Myth of Moderation—and the Polis Paradox
Ganahl and Mitchell also discussed the phenomenon of Democratic Governor Jared Polis, who remains relatively well-liked—even by some Republican-leaning voters.
In Rasmussen’s poll of Republican primary participants, 36% rated Polis favorably and 29% said they have “a lot” of trust in Colorado’s elections. That’s surprising in a state where election integrity remains a grassroots rallying cry.
Mitchell called Polis’s media image “the libertarian governor myth,” while Ganahl noted that even Fox News personalities like Dana Perino prop up his “moderate” persona.
“There’s nothing moderate about what he does,” Ganahl said. “He just cons people with that facade—and the media lets him.”
What Issues Actually Move Voters?
Perhaps the biggest challenge for Republicans in Colorado is aligning messaging with mobilization. Voters may be frustrated with woke education policies, Second Amendment restrictions, and sanctuary policies—but they don’t always vote based on those issues.
Mitchell said the issues that actually change votes tend to be pocketbook-related:
“The winning message is: this is a new Republican Party. We’re serious about fiscal responsibility, cleaning up government, and rebalancing the economy.”
Even still, Ganahl emphasized the importance of building a broader coalition.
“We can honor our America First values—but we’ve got to reach Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are swayable.” Ganahl added, “We have to show them this isn’t the old GOP—it’s a coalition of people who don’t like what’s happening to our country.”
The Road Ahead
As Ganahl wrapped the episode, she reminded listeners that the work continues—not just to identify the problem, but to craft the solutions.
“We’ve got to keep asking the right questions. And we’ve got to fight back smarter—not just louder.”
You can catch the full interview on Unleashed with Heidi Ganahl, available anywhere you listen to podcasts, or watch on YouTube and Rumble. Follow Mark Mitchell on X at @HonestPollster for daily insights into public opinion across the country.