By Jen Schumann | Rocky Mountain Voice
Colorado’s classrooms are getting quieter – not because kids are learning, but because there are fewer of them. Across the state, dropping birth rates and shrinking enrollment are forcing schools to close, merge – or sit half-empty. And the trend isn’t slowing down.
In May, the Common Sense Institute released a report warning that Colorado’s birth rate has been declining since 2005 and has fallen faster than the national average since 2011. The report projects the state will lose more than 15,000 children under age 18 by 2030 – roughly the equivalent of the entire Thompson R2-J school district.
Denver Public Schools is already deep into closures. According to CSI’s analysis, DPS has approved the closure of seven schools and partial restructuring of three others, affecting thousands of students. The district also expects to lose more than 6,300 students by 2028 – about 8 percent of its current enrollment.
In remarks reported by Chalkbeat, DPS Superintendent Alex Marrero said, “These students will receive more of the resources that they deserve… to build that strong foundation so they can reach their potential.”
Board member John Youngquist defended the closures in comments quoted by Chalkbeat, calling under-enrolled schools “inequitable, unaffordable and unsustainable.”
Marrero, however, is working within strict policy limits. A district rule known as Executive Limitation 18 only allows school closure proposals once every three years and prohibits the use of enrollment and test scores as the sole justification.
More closures are likely. In an interview with the Denver Gazette, DPS Board President Carrie Olson warned, “By the time the next school closures roll around, [the public] won’t be aware.”
While Denver and its suburbs are facing high-profile restructuring, rural districts are grappling with a different kind of demographic challenge: too few births to sustain schools at all.
The CSI report highlighted some of the steepest birth rate declines in the state’s most remote areas. San Juan County recorded just 1.3 births per 1,000 residents. Dolores and Hinsdale counties weren’t far behind.
These numbers, CSI warned, signal a deepening contraction in rural and frontier communities that could impact not just schools, but local economies and labor markets for years to come.
One district already adapting is Douglas County, where enrollment in 16 Highlands Ranch schools dropped from about 10,500 students in 2012 to just 6,000 today. In response, the district plans to close three elementary schools in 2026 while constructing new ones in RidgeGate and Sterling Ranch to match population shifts.
Jefferson County faced the enrollment crisis earlier than most and offers a case study in what happens when a district acts ahead of the curve.
Between 2022 and 2024, Jeffco closed 16 elementary schools and repurposed two others. District officials reported that school-age population in the county dropped by roughly 30,000 over the past two decades.
To ease transitions, Jeffco created buddy programs and hosted community events. As quoted in a Colorado Gives Foundation spotlight, Jeffco’s Chief of Strategy Lisa Relou said, “We’re creating a sense of belonging.”
CSI’s report shows that statewide, Colorado has recorded three consecutive years of enrollment decline, including the loss of more than 3,200 students in 2022 alone.
On the Western Slope, similar pressures have forced Mesa County leaders to make tough decisions about school closures.
In an interview with Colorado Public Radio, Superintendent Brian Hill of Mesa County Valley School District 51 said, “We have too many elementary school buildings for the amount of kids we have.” The district closed Scenic, Clifton and Nisley elementary schools in 2024, citing a 9.3 percent enrollment drop since 2019 and more than $22 million in needed building repairs.
D51 Board President Andrea Haitz acknowledged the difficulty of the decision but said the board had a responsibility to act. “Closing schools is never the preferred path, but given declining birth rates, we must steward our resources.”
But enrollment is only half the story. These closures are also driven by money – and the shrinking dollars that follow student exits.
Speaking at a rally covered by Colorado Public Radio, Colorado Education Association Vice President Kevin Vick said, “We have to get out of this ‘Hunger Games’ situation in our state budget.”
To put that in perspective, District 51 now ranks 174th out of 178 districts in Colorado in per-pupil funding – just $10,000 per student. As enrollment drops, so does funding, even though building and staffing costs often remain fixed.
The CSI report warned that Colorado’s declining fertility rates could also reshape the state’s higher education pipeline and future workforce. Fewer students could mean fewer graduates and greater competition between schools to attract them.
Meanwhile, Denver faces growing criticism over how it uses data to justify closures. In a recent article, the Gazette noted that the district excluded preschool enrollment from some of its projections, arguing not every school has an early childhood program. That exclusion is now part of a legal challenge over how enrollment trends were presented to the public.
Not everyone agrees with how the closures have been decided – or whom they affect most.
In comments to CBS News Colorado, community advocate Flor Canales, with the group Movimiento Poder, said, “We don’t see any real justification for school closures.”
Movimiento Poder argues that Southwest Denver schools – many serving Latino and immigrant families – are being unfairly targeted. A new DPS policy known as the “School Transformation Policy” links possible closures to academic performance. Critics say that deepens inequity, not solves it.
The Gazette also reported that white, then Black, then Latino students are projected to be overrepresented in the district’s shrinking schools – raising further questions about the impact of closures across different communities.
With the birthrate still dropping and closures accelerating, the road forward remains uncertain.
The Common Sense Institute’s conclusion is direct: school districts across Colorado are grappling with under-enrolled campuses, strained budgets and difficult decisions about consolidation – realities echoed by superintendents, board members and education officials from Denver to Mesa County.