Pollster: Trump’s early-term record is unmatched since FDR

By David Charter | The Times

Frank Luntz says no US leader since Franklin D Roosevelt has been more effective in delivering their campaign pledges

Frank Luntz hears the rage of ordinary Americans in weekly focus groups that lay bare the country’s deep divisions and frustrations, but has come to a surprising verdict on President Trump’s return to office: “He’s succeeding.”

The pre-eminent US pollster, whose hard-earned insights are sought by presidential hopefuls and Fortune 500 corporations alike, did not come to this conclusion lightly. He has been among those sounding alarm bells about Trump shattering democratic and legal norms.

But Luntz says no US president has accomplished as much as Trump in so short a time since Franklin D Roosevelt almost a century ago — and none can claim so many achievements with such slim majorities in Congress.

He says the long-term costs may be far-reaching in terms of global reputation, national unity and Americans’ inability to talk to and listen to each other any more, but in the short term Trump is meeting his voters’ expectations and his own campaign promises.

America is getting what it voted for.

“You show me a president who did more in their first 200 days,” Luntz told The Times in an interview to mark next week’s milestone. “Sure, he has not united the country but that was never his promise. His stated priority was to ‘make America great again’ and almost every policy he talked about, he’s been able to do.

“The legislation he could not get through Congress, he made happen through presidential executive order. He doesn’t care about process — at all. He only cares about the result, and whether or not you agree with him, his results have been significant.”

Trump has kept up a breakneck pace after a frenetic first 100 days with the passage of his One Big Beautiful Bill, a far-reaching but expensive set of tax cuts that also reversed many of President Biden’s clean energy subsidies and included a huge increase in border security spending.

Apart from his flagship domestic legislation and new tariffs for trading partners, Trump’s second 100 days included the pledge from Nato members to raise defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, a $1 trillion military budget for the first time in US history and the bombing of Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites that brought an end to a war with Israel.

“You have to go back to FDR to find a president who tackled a more diverse set of issues,” Luntz said.

Roosevelt came to power in 1933 during the Great Depression, with massive majorities in Congress. Trump, meanwhile, can lose only three votes in the Senate and two in the House.

“Trump was able to accomplish more than any other president with a tiny congressional majority and that makes his accomplishments that much more remarkable,” Luntz said. “It’s not just about securing the border or reducing spending or cutting taxes, or getting Nato to step up to the plate — it’s all of it. Trump has continued to pursue a very aggressive, expansive agenda to continued success.”

However, Luntz added, “he did it at the cost of a non-partisan, non-political judiciary. He did it at the cost of a trusted, credible media. He did it without any Democrats and some of that legislation is opposed by a majority of the public.

“So you have the same situation today that Obama and Biden faced — a decrease in public support and an increasingly vocal opposition — and that cost Obama control of Congress. Obama had had just two years where he could govern, and the last six years he was completely at odds with Congress. Trump may face the same problem.”

One of the key Trump achievements has been to shore up the southern US border, where migrants poured in under Biden. In June Border Patrol agents recorded just over 6,000 arrests of illegal migrants, the lowest ever monthly tally, down from 83,536 in June last year under Biden.

“Donald Trump was able to do in under 200 days what Joe Biden couldn’t do in four years,” Luntz said. “In fact, Trump did it twice. He did it when he was president the first time and he’s done it again now. But the words he uses and the tactics he has embraced are often at odds with the American public.”

Luntz acknowledged that Trump’s aggressive language and strategy contributed to the lower polling numbers. Not only has asylum been heavily restricted but there have been high-profile arrests and expulsions of illegal migrants, sometimes to third countries, and half a million migrants given temporary permission under Biden to remain in the US from Haiti, Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela were told to leave.

“The public does not like how immigration has been communicated,” Luntz said. “They do not like the method, but they definitely like the result. In the end, they will vote for the result rather than the method. He has the Midas touch in terms of results, even if the process leaves people angry and upset.”

He added: “Of course there are people who don’t like him or what he’s done. But Trump hasn’t tried to communicate to those who didn’t vote for him, because he really doesn’t care about them. What he does care about are his voters, and he is keeping his promises to them.”

Polling for The Times by YouGov found a massive divide between the president’s supporters and critics that is striking even in the polarised Trump era. Some 81 per cent of Republicans graded Trump’s performance as excellent or good, compared with 2 per cent of Democrats.

“Trump has not been president of all the people,” Luntz said. “He’s been president of 49.9 per cent and that will be a problem for him in the months and years ahead. Trump has taken a decidedly anti-Reagan approach.

“Reagan was elected 50 per cent to 41 per cent, and he spent the first four years working hard to get that 50 per cent up to 60 per cent. By comparison, Trump has tried to get from 49.9 per cent to 49.9 per cent. Reagan successfully brought a majority of Americans to his agenda. Trump has only sought to communicate to his base.”

Luntz also repeatedly pointed to a key factor behind Trump’s success: the failure of the Democratic Party to oppose him effectively. “I don’t believe you can credit Trump entirely for his success. You also need to acknowledge the utter collapse of the Democratic opposition,” he said.

“There’s a reason why the Democratic Party has been unable to challenge him. Frankly, it’s because they’re pathetic. They’re led by Senator Chuck Schumer, who’s not only of the past generation, you’d actually have to go back two generations.

“He has no understanding or appreciation of Americans’ sense of frustration or their disappointment with the extremes in the Democratic Party. And he openly disrespects those people who voted for Trump.”

What does Luntz think about the criticism that Trump is pushing beyond the democratic limits of presidential power, leading to the “No Kings” protests across the country in June?

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