By BRIAN PORTER | Rocky Mountain Voice
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives will most likely come down to an estimated 24 toss up seats in November, according to the Cook Political Report ratings.
Only one of those seats is in Colorado: the battleground 8th District pitting incumbent Democrat Yadira Caraveo against Republican Gabe Evans. Last week, Evans collected the support of the Libertarian who was in the race, which could mean a 2-3% swing in the outcome. The race was rated “even” prior to the announcement by the Cook Political Report. If Evans can win the seat, it would provide Republicans with a “plus-one” in the U.S. House. It would also likely give Republicans a split of Colorado’s congressional delegation.
In order to control the U.S. House, a party must hold at least 218 of the 435 seats.
Thirteen of the 24 seats rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report are presently held by Republicans. Each seat in the report is assigned a plus score for Republicans or Democrats, or placed as “even”. The plus-score indicates a lean toward that political party by voters.
Three seats in California and two in New York are in the greatest danger of being flipped from Republicans to Democrats, including Anthony D’Esposito’s 4th District seat in New York and David Valadao’s 5th District seat in California, both of which are a Democratic plus-5 rating. John Duarte and Mike Garcia in California are in Democratic plus-4 districts and Mike Lawler in New York is in a Democratic plus-3 district. Michelle Steel in California and Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon are in Democratic plus-2 districts.
There are six other remaining toss-up seats presently held by Republicans, with five of those six having a Republican lean. They include Juan Ciscomani of Arizona and Ken Calvert of California in Republican plus-3 districts, David Schweikert of Arizona in a Republican plus-2 district, Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Marc Molinaro of New York in Republican plus-1 districts, and Don Bacon of Nebraska in an even district.
Republicans stand an opportunity to gain 11 Democratic-held seats, with only one seat having a Democratic lean. That seat is the 2nd District in New Mexico, held by Gabe Vasquez, which is a Democratic plus-1.
Four seats presently held by Democrats have a considerable Republican lean. Mary Peltola is in the Republican plus-8 Alaska District, the seat which most likely could switch. Jared Golden of Maine is in a Republican plus-6 seat, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington is in a Republican plus-5 seat and Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania is in a Republican plus-4 seat.
There are six other seats held by Democrats which are presently rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Two of those are open seats in Michigan, with the 7th District having a Republican plus-2 rating and the 8th District having a Republican plus-2 rating. Other seats in jeopardy for Democrats could be Susan Wild’s 7th District in Pennsylvania in a Republican plus-2 area, Don Davis of North Carolina and Emilia Sykes of Ohio in Republican plus-1 districts, and the even-rated 8th District in Colorado.