By BRIAN PORTER | Rocky Mountain Voice
With a dozen days remaining until Election Day, the race for the White House between former President Donald Trump, a Republican, and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, could not be closer, according to three poll aggregators.
Harris holds a 0.2% edge in the national average at Real Clear Politics, but that is where the good news ends for her campaign. In the top battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, Trump is leading the polls and overall has a 0.9% lead in top battleground states, Real Clear Politics projects.
Real Clear Politics presently gives Trump a four-point Electoral College edge, 219-215, with nine states placed into “toss up” category for an additional 104 Electoral College votes. In order to win the presidency, a candidate must earn 270 Electoral College votes. When Real Clear Politics forecasts the race without “toss ups”, meaning each state is assigned a winner, Trump presently has a 312-226 lead.
Other telling data in the Real Clear Politics polling relates to Trump’s gains since 2020. In the seven top battleground states, Trump has gained 5.1%. His favorability has also jumped 15%, with Joe Biden’s 17.7% edge in 2020 dissipating to just a 2.7% edge for Harris in 2024.
The aggregator Five Thirty-Eight also has Harris winning nationally with a 1.7% margin. It has the battleground states of Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as “even”, with Trump leading in North Carolina and Georgia and Harris leading in Michigan.
Five Thirty-Eight also finds Harris under water in favorability, with 1.2% more finding her to be unfavorable. Trump also is under water with 8.6% more finding him unfavorable than find him favorable.
The Silver Bulletin, an aggregator by Nate Silver, has Harris with a 1.6% national lead over Trump. It also shows the political winds blowing in his 11 battleground states, with Trump gaining in the past week and month in all but one state. The Silver Bulletin also shows the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina going for Trump.
The Silver Bulletin model has Pennsylvania, who many believe could decide the election, slightly favoring Trump, by a 0.2% edge. It is a mirror of Five Thirty-Eight, which has Trump ahead by 0.3%. The race is important, because the electoral votes in Pennsylvania are worth two of the other battleground states, so a candidate losing the state will need to pick up another two to counter the loss.