By Martha McHardy | Newsweek
New data shows a growing number of immigrant voters are backing Donald Trump and his hardline immigration agenda—marking a dramatic reversal from past elections.
Why It Matters
The Trump administration has pledged to carry out the largest mass deportation in U.S. history and has conducted numerous ICE raids, some of which have swept up people with proper documentation.
Trump’s aggressive stance on immigration has resulted in widespread protests, especially in Los Angeles, where Trump authorized the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles after reported violence against law enforcement, specifically ICE agents carrying out deportation raids in the city.
But despite the unrest, data suggests that Trump’s messaging on border enforcement and immigration control may be resonating with segments of the immigrant community.
What To Know
According to an analysis of the American National Election Studies (ANES) by CNN‘s Harry Enten, immigrant voters, who favored Democrats by 32 points on immigration policy in 2020, now trust Republicans more on the issue by 8 points—a staggering 40-point swing.
Trump’s share of the immigrant vote has steadily increased—from 36 percent in 2016 to 39 percent in 2020 and now to 47 percent in 2024, based on Cooperative Election Study (CES) data analyzed by Enten.
Perhaps even more telling is how immigrant voters feel about immigrants who are in the country illegally. In 2020, their net favorability stood at +23 points. This year that has flipped to -6—a 29-point decline in support for undocumented immigrants among immigrants themselves. Enten did not specify which demographics were included in his aggregate.
It comes as polls suggest that Trump’s hardline immigration stance is resonating with much of the public. In a sharp turnaround from his first term, Trump now holds a net positive approval rating on immigration, rising from -21 in June 2017 to +1 today, according to CNN’s Harry Enten—his biggest gain on any issue.
A YouGov/CBS News poll conducted June 4-6 found 54 percent of Americans support Trump’s deportation program targeting undocumented immigrants, surpassing his ratings on the economy (42 percent) and inflation (39 percent). Additionally, 51 percent approve of ICE conducting searches.
An RMG Research poll echoed that result, with 58 percent backing the deportation efforts. And in an Insider Advantage survey, 59 percent approved of Trump’s decision to send National Guard troops to Los Angeles in response to the protests.