Reading the 2026 election tea leaves: Why this cycle is so hard to call

By Newt Gingrich | Commentary, Gingrich 360

This may be the hardest election cycle to analyze in my lifetime.

I have been watching elections since the 1956 Dwight Eisenhower-Adli Stevenson race.

Yet, with everything I have lived through and studied, I find this campaign deeply frustrating and puzzling.Subscribe

I could make a case for a blue tsunami: high gasoline and diesel prices; a seemingly endless, inadequately explained war; and intense dislike of President Trump by the great majority of Democrats. All these indicate a Democratic victory night of historic proportions.

And yet…

My good friend Barry Casselman, who has been a great observer of Minnesota politics for a generation, just wrote an article pointing out that the fraud scandal is so enormous the Republicans have a real shot at winning Minnesota’s U.S. Senate, attorney general, and secretary of state seats. He also notes that to everyone’s surprise (including mine) incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who should be winning easily, has a close race even according to the Democratic polls.

In Iowa, we clearly have tough races for governor and senator. Yet, President Donald J. Trump just visited and announced the largest steel plant in America with thousands of jobs for rural areas. This had strong, positive coverage in the Iowa media.

In Maine, where Democrats pinned their hopes on beating the last statewide Republican in New England, some vicious nasty person just painted a disgusting attack on Susan Collins’s campaign headquarters. It could push her into a sympathetic lead with her fellow citizens, who know that as chair of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee she can do a great deal for her state.

READ THE FULL COMMENTARY AT GINGRICH 360

Editor’s note: Opinions expressed in commentary pieces are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the management of the Rocky Mountain Voice, but even so we support the constitutional right of the author to express those opinions.