Colorado 2026 midterms: Keshel says the 8th District could decide Congress

By Tori Stork | Rocky Mountain Voice

With the 2026 midterm elections just weeks away, Republicans are facing a familiar challenge: history suggests the president’s party is likely to lose ground, but election analyst Seth Keshel believes the numbers tell a more complicated story.

In the latest episode of Unleashed with Heidi Ganahl, Keshel, a former Army intelligence officer, bestselling author and election integrity advocate, joined Ganahl to discuss the battle for Congress, Colorado’s increasingly difficult political environment and the races that could determine the balance of power in Washington.

“We’ve got a really brutal election coming up in a few weeks here in Colorado, and it’s not feeling very good on the ground,” Ganahl said. “People don’t seem to be as enthusiastic as I’d like to see.”

Keshel acknowledged those concerns, pointing to long-term changes in Colorado’s electorate.

“There’s been a long-term shift in the wrong direction in Colorado, and I can see numbers like that in voter registration data. I don’t need polls to tell me that,” he said.

Still, Keshel believes Republicans have a path to holding their majority in the U.S. House, and Colorado could play an important role in determining the outcome.

The path to 218: Can Republicans defy history?

“Since the New Deal, Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934 midterms to present, 20 out of 23 midterms, the president’s party has lost seats in the House,” Keshel said. “The average loss in the House for the president’s party is 27 seats.”

For Republicans, who entered the current Congress with 220 seats following the 2024 election, a loss of that magnitude would put control of the House well out of reach.

But Keshel argues that modern redistricting has created far fewer competitive congressional districts, making the traditional midterm swing less predictive.

“Both parties have gerrymandered their seats to the point where very few are actually in play,” he said.

According to his analysis, Republicans have five relatively vulnerable seats he expects them to hold. Beyond those, he identified 23 decisive contests that could determine control of the House.

“If they hold all five of those, then the GOP will have 207 almost to a starting point, and that leaves 23 seats that I consider decisive, and the Republicans would need to win 11 of them,” Keshel said.

His assessment? Republicans have roughly a one-in-three chance of retaining the House.

“One of the main reasons I think the Republicans have what I called the other day a puncher’s chance of winning the House is because there are a number of seats in play in the House that are easy Democrat wins if not for candidate quality,” he said.

One of those seats, he argues, is Colorado’s 8th Congressional District.

Colorado’s 8th District could help decide Congress

The race between Republican incumbent Gabe Evans and Democrat Manny Rutinel has emerged as one of the country’s most closely watched congressional contests.

“One of the most obvious races that should be a Democrat pickup is Colorado eight,” Keshel said.

But he believes the district’s demographics, voter registration trends and candidate differences could give Evans an opportunity to hold the seat.

“Trump won by almost three. Evans won by 0.7 percent,” Keshel said of the 2024 election. “Trump actually dragged Evans over the top.”

Keshel credits much of that difference to Trump’s improved performance among Hispanic voters, who make up a significant portion of the district’s population.

“Evans’ district is 39% Hispanic, and they’re all over Southern Adams County,” he said. “That’s where you can see Trump’s victory margins improving or margins of defeat tightening up.”

Keshel also pointed to voter registration data showing a slight shift toward Republicans.

“Registration has gone from D plus 2.2 to D plus 2.0,” he said, arguing that the numbers do not suggest a major surge back toward Democrats.

Another factor, according to Keshel, is Rutinel’s environmental policy positions, particularly in energy-producing Weld County.

“Weld County produces 83% of your crude oil, 56% of your natural gas, and has a bustling agriculture industry,” Keshel said. “You’ve got this guy trying to make all the climate dreams come true. That’s going to really hurt him there.”

Despite those factors, Keshel stopped short of predicting an Evans victory.

“I’m still giving a very slight edge to Rutinel, just based on the year and based on Colorado,” he said. “But it’s essentially, to me, looks like a coin toss that Evans could definitely win with his cash advantage.”

Colorado’s broader political challenges

While Keshel sees an opportunity in the 8th District, his broader assessment of Colorado is considerably less optimistic.

“In the Trump era, the most volatile shifts are in the suburban areas, which of course, two-thirds of the vote in Colorado is coming out of six counties in the Denver metro,” he said.

Keshel predicted Republican Jeff Crank would comfortably hold Colorado’s 5th Congressional District and expressed similar confidence in Republican Jeff Hurd’s position in the 3rd District. He also suggested Rep. Lauren Boebert could face a smaller margin of victory than usual in the 4th District.

Still, he warned that Republicans are losing ground in traditional strongholds.

“You’re definitely, over the long run, losing ground in Colorado Springs,” he said. “The more urban a place gets, and the more suburban a place gets in the current populism era, the more difficult it is to run large Republican margins.”

Ganahl also raised concerns about Colorado’s statewide races, including the gubernatorial contest involving Republican Victor Marx, unaffiliated candidate Greg Lopez and Democrat Phil Weiser, along with the attorney general race between Michael Allen and Jena Griswold.

“I wish we were doing better from looking at it from an organizational perspective in the Republican Party in Colorado,” Ganahl said. “We just don’t have a lot of organized activity going on.”

Keshel believes Colorado Republicans must find ways to reach voters who have moved away from the party.

“We have a great sort that is still going on. It’s not going your way in Colorado,” he said. “So the only way you’re going to be able to sort that out is by converting people that are already there.”

Election integrity and voter registration

Keshel’s election forecasting grew out of his work analyzing election integrity, voter registration patterns and changes to state election laws.

“I’ve been able to morph those two disciplines into one giant discipline,” he said.

Keshel remains sharply critical of Colorado’s election administration system, particularly automatic voter registration and universal mail-in voting.

“Colorado has the three cardinal sins of election administration right there: automatic voter registration, universal vote by mail, and everywhere there’s universal vote by mail, there’s ballot harvesting,” he said.

Ganahl also raised concerns about ballot drop-box surveillance, chain-of-custody practices and election technology following her 2022 gubernatorial campaign.

Keshel emphasized that his primary focus is voter registration rather than cybersecurity.

“Everything begins and ends with the quality or lack thereof of voter registration,” he said.

He also argued that improperly collected or submitted ballots can affect close elections. That claim reflects Keshel’s interpretation of election data and procedures, not an independently established finding of widespread election fraud.

The Senate map and races beyond Colorado

While Keshel is cautious about the House, he is more optimistic about Republicans’ Senate prospects.

He identified Ohio, Maine, Iowa and Texas as states where he expects Republicans to perform well.

“I think the Republicans should hold all four of those seats, and that’s 51,” he said.

Michigan remains another race to watch, with Keshel giving Republican Mike Rogers a slight advantage.

“I think that Rogers, as of yesterday, I would probably favor Rogers by a hair,” he said.

He also expressed skepticism about polling suggesting Democrats could win statewide in Texas.

“We have the edge on the Senate majority,” Keshel said. “Now anything can happen.”

Looking at gubernatorial races, Keshel described Arizona’s contest between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs as competitive, while predicting a comfortable victory for Republican Byron Donalds in Florida.

Donalds will win easily, Keshel said. “He’ll walk into the governor’s mansion.”

Looking ahead to 2028, Keshel identified Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the most likely Republican presidential nominees, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis remaining a potential contender.

“I wouldn’t even be surprised if it’s Vance-Rubio or Rubio-Vance on the same ticket,” he said.

Winning elections means understanding the math

Despite the wide-ranging predictions, Keshel repeatedly returned to one argument: Republicans must become more strategic about where they compete.

“There’s only two kinds of races. There’s races that you can win, and then there’s races that you absolutely cannot win,” he said.

Keshel argued that Republicans often make the mistake of writing off heavily Democrat cities instead of trying to reduce their margins of defeat.

“The Republicans drive me nuts looking at Pennsylvania,” he said. “It’s all red, all Trumpy in between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And then you look at Philadelphia, we lose that thing 85 to 15.”

“If we could lose at 75-25, you’d never have a problem carrying Pennsylvania statewide,” he added. “No, you can’t win there, but you can lose less bad.”

Ganahl noted that a similar strategy could apply to Denver and Boulder.

“If you could shift Denver from 90-10 to 80-20 or 70-30, voila, you know, you can start winning statewide races,” she said.

A call for grassroots involvement

The conversation closed with a discussion about political participation and the importance of engaging younger voters.

Keshel argued that citizens frustrated with elected officials must become more involved in primary elections, where relatively small groups of voters often determine which candidates advance to the general election.

“Until people start organizing in primaries and nominating real people with real objectives and leadership skills for these positions, including county supervisor positions and school board positions, then we’re going to wallow in this state of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” he said.

Ganahl highlighted the importance of community-building efforts like Rocky Mountain Voice’s Freedom Fest.

“That’s why we did Freedom Fest, to try and get people having fun together again, breaking bread, having a beer, and enjoying the experience of being in politics,” she said.

Keshel agreed, pointing to Charlie Kirk’s success in engaging young people.

“He made this stuff interesting for young people,” Keshel said. “Not every Republican group can be a 75-and-up group that brings the same 12 people every time. That’s not how you’re going to change society.”

With November approaching, Keshel’s message is both a warning and a challenge. Republicans face difficult electoral conditions, particularly in Colorado, but he believes the party’s future depends on organizing strategically, competing in overlooked communities and getting more citizens involved in the political process.

WATCH & LISTEN: Catch the full conversation with Seth Keshel on Unleashed with Heidi Ganahl, available on Spotify, YouTube, Rumble and your favorite podcast platform.

FOLLOW SETH KESHEL: Read his election analysis at CaptainK.US or find his book, The American War on Election Corruption, on Amazon.

STAY INFORMED: Subscribe to Rocky Mountain Voice at rockymountainvoice.com for Colorado election coverage, political analysis and independent reporting.