By BRIAN PORTER | Rocky Mountain Voice
When the Democrat National Convention closes tonight in Chicago, it could be an all-out sprint to the Nov. 5 finish line to determine who will become the next President of the United States.
A new Cook Political Report national polling average, re-released Wednesday for the first time since Joe Biden’s exit and Kamala Harris’ entry, finds the race to be a virtual dead heat.
The CPR average takes into consideration 12 traditional media polls, most of which lean to the political left, and nine online or larger panel polls. Harris, who had yet prior to her acceptance speech Thursday to share policy on her website, is leading Donald Trump by less than 1%. With all polls considered, Harris is favored by 47.6% and Trump by 46.7%.
The CPR average demographic breakout offers some insight into just how close the race is, and that Trump has gained from 2020 in key demographic areas. Trump holds a 10% lead among men, while Harris holds a 10% lead among women. Harris holds an 11.6% lead among white, college-educated persons, and Trump is favored by a 29.6% margin among white, non-college-educated persons.
It is all about identical to 2020, until Trump’s support among Black Americans is considered. He was only able to earn 9% of the black vote in 2020, and the poll finds he has 18.6% support presently for double the support among Blacks. Economists have said the Black demographic felt the pinch the hardest when inflation rose prices on everything from bread to milk.
The loss of Democratic support among Hispanics could also come into play. The poll average finds 6.2% fewer Hispanics support Harris, compared to Biden in 2020. Trump has gained 3.6% support.
The Harris campaign is catering to the youngest of all voters and it shows in the poll averages. She is shown to have 9.9% more support from voters ages 18-29, but in 2020 Biden had 60% of their vote. Those in the retiree class of age 65-plus support Trump with a 2.5% edge. In Colorado, those in the age 65-plus class turnout to vote at the highest rate, and the 18-29 voters at the lowest rate.
In a piece of irony, an almost identical percentage of persons in each party are breaking to the other party’s candidate. The poll finds Harris is attracting 5% of Republican voters and Trump is attracting 4.9% of Democratic voters. Harris is supported by 0.1% more independent voters than Trump.
See the Cook Political Report national polling average report here.